Tomas Žiaugra, Director of Development Department of EIKA Development:
In 2024, for the second quarter in a row, more apartments were sold in Vilnius than in 2023 at the same time: this year, 10% more new construction apartments were sold in 6 months, which is about 20 apartments per month. Buyer activity in the economy and prestige classes has increased by almost a quarter this year. Both segments have accumulated significant unrealised demand for housing, although the reasons for this are radically different: buyers in the economy class have been most affected by rising interest rates and have been very cautious on the market, while those looking for luxury housing have faced a drastic shortage of supply, which was eliminated in 2024.
Developers are also surprisingly active and trying to inject more optimism into the market. While only 10% more buyers have returned to the market so far in 2024, developers, having done their homework and learnt the lessons of the pandemic, have put 63% more apartments on the market than in the first half of last year, i.e. about 900 more apartments have been launched in the market. This behaviour of developers brings more stability to the market, increases competition and reduces possible price spikes in the near future.
After more than a year of stagnation of the average price of a new home in 2023, in 2024, two consecutive quarters of price growth are being driven by prestige class projects, where the prices of the best flats exceed even the EUR 10,000 mark. In this segment alone, prices have risen by almost 27% per year to EUR 6,320 per sqm. But different processes are taking place in different segments of the market, which are not always reflected in the overall statistics. In the economy class, prices remained stable over the quarter and are currently at 2760 EUR/sqm – in this segment the biggest compromises are being made to find agreements between buyers and sellers, while in the middle class, the discounts introduced in individual projects have brought the overall average price down by about 2.7% to 3590 EUR/sqm.
2024 is likely to remain a year of buyers. Despite the interest reductions that have been introduced, buyers’ options are much more extensive than in the previous few years, which automatically lengthens the buying process considerably. Contained inflation, projected further wage increases will directly increase housing affordability, and buyers who do not create unreasonable expectations and make timely decisions will be the main beneficiaries.
Facts
- 641 apartments sold in Q2 2024. The quarterly result is 9% lower than in Q1 2024 (707 apartments) but 11% higher than in Q2 2023 (578 apartments).
- Comparing the half-yearly results, the number of apartments sold in the first six months of 2024 is 10% higher (1,348 apartments) than in 2023 (1,220 apartments).
- In Q2 2024, the share of mid-range and economy class dwellings was the same at 47% (303 apartments each), while luxury dwellings accounted for almost 6% of the dwellings sold in the quarter (35 apartments).
- The number of buyers of prestige class dwellings increased the most during the quarter, by 46%, while sales of middle class dwellings decreased by 12% in the quarter compared to Q1 2024. Economy class sales decreased by 10% in the quarter.
- In Q2 2024, the number of vacant apartments on the market increased by almost 13% and currently stands at 4,270 vacant apartments, compared to 3,790 vacant apartments in the previous quarter.
- The share of completed and under-construction apartments on the market increased from 40% to 41% during the quarter (1,740 apartments), while the remaining 59% (2,530 apartments) are only visible on the drawings or in the midst of construction.
During the quarter, the number of vacant apartments changed the most in the prestige segment, increasing by 62% (up to 430 apartments), while in the other segments, the number of vacant apartments increased by 9% (up to 1960 apartments) in the middle class and the economy segment (1880 apartments). - In Q2 2024, developers offered around 1,100 new apartments to the market. For the second quarter in a row, over 1000 new apartments were offered to the market, which is 63% more developer activity in 2024 (2210 apartments) than in the first half of 2023 (1360 apartments).
- In Q2 2024, the price of new apartments in Vilnius grew the most in the luxury segment – by 3.1% due to the supply of new projects on the market, while in the medium segment, after taking into account public discounts, a 2.7% price decrease was recorded, and the price of the economy segment remained stable during the quarter. The price level currently stands at EUR 2760/sq.m in the economy segment, EUR 3590/sq.m in the medium segment and EUR 6320/sq.m in the prestige segment.
- As a result of the above-mentioned price changes, the overall average price of new housing in Vilnius increased by 1.8% over the quarter, from EUR 3,440/sqm to EUR 3,500/sqm.